Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., the strongest free trade advocate in the Senate, said he doesn't know if Republicans will return to their traditional position as pro-free trade. In response to a question from the audience at the American Enterprise Institute Dec. 19, he said it depends on whether President Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020.
USMCA
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement is a free trade agreement between the three countries, also known as CUSMA in Canada and T-MEC in Mexico. Replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, the agreement contains a unique sunset provision where, after six years (in 2026), any of the three parties may decide not to continue the agreement in its current form and begin a period of up to 10 years where USMCA provisions may be renegotiated.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said the committee will hold a mock markup of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Jan. 7. “This markup will move us closer to ratifying USMCA in early 2020,” Grassley said Dec. 20. “Farmers, manufacturers and all American workers will soon be able to benefit from a stronger and modernized trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.”
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed in the House of Representatives with a vote of 385-41, with all but two Republicans and 193 Democrats voting yes. This was the biggest vote for a free trade deal in the House since the Canada Free Trade agreement in 1988, and many of the top Democrats in the House say it will serve as a template for future trade deals. It was a far more resounding “yes” than the original NAFTA vote of 234-200, when just 102 Democrats voted yes.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 385-41. The implementing legislation will be taken up by the Senate in the new year. If the impeachment trial begins in early January, it is expected to wait until that trial is over.
The enactment of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would increase revenues by $230 million a year in 2023 and $360 million a year in 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. CBO projects that “certain imports of motor vehicles and parts” that currently enter the U.S. duty free under NAFTA would not be eligible under the stricter rules of origin in USMCA. It expects that some of those parts or vehicles would be replaced by domestic production, but some would be replaced by imports subject to tariffs, and thus, total customs revenue would rise. While there would be hundreds of millions spent in the first three years, primarily for monitoring environmental and labor compliance in Mexico, by 2024, that spending would be just $21 million, and would be partially offset by lower subsidies to dairy farmers, since CBO assumes they would have higher sales as a result of the deal.
Seven freshmen in the House -- all from traditionally Republican districts -- say that it's wrong for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to put off a vote on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement when he's complained for months that House Democrats are delaying a vote. “We are deeply concerned by your statements that the Senate will not take up the USMCA this year and that you refuse to pass any legislative items during January -- including the USMCA,” they wrote. They said the USMCA cannot end up in the Senate's “legislative graveyard,” as hundreds of other House-passed bills have. The letter, sent Dec. 17, was led by Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Iowa, and joined by Reps. Abby Finkenauer, D-Iowa; Joe Cunningham, D-S.C.; Angie Craig, D-Minn.; Anthony Brindisi, D-N.Y.; Kendra Horn, D-Okla.; and Susan Wild, D-Pa.
The House Ways and Means Committee, with near-unanimity, recommended the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement go to the floor. A vote on the replacement for NAFTA is expected on Dec. 19. For about three hours, Democrats and Republicans praised the rewrite of North America's free trade pact, though many Republicans complained that it took a year to get the opportunity to vote for it.
International Trade Today is providing readers with some of the top stories for Dec.9-13 in case they were missed.
As the auto industry grapples with how much the rules of origin for cars and trucks will change from NAFTA to USMCA, the implementing bill that will be voted this week suggests there may be an opportunity to re-evaluate the system when USMCA undergoes review in six years. In two years -- and again in four, and six years -- the International Trade Commission must prepare a report on the economic impact of the auto ROO, including on exports and imports; aggregate employment, employment and wages of automotive workers, “production, investment ... and profit levels in the automotive industries and other pertinent industries in the United States affected by the automotive rules of origin and the interests of consumers in the United States.”
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the senior Democrat on the Finance Committee, and Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat who voted against NAFTA, have endorsed the NAFTA rewrite, known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The two had said they would oppose the USMCA unless it included a labor enforcement mechanism that carried consequences for Mexican imports from factories that weren't honoring workers' rights.