The U.S. should work with China in select artificial intelligence areas instead of imposing sweeping export controls that create financial incentives for companies to “design-out” U.S. technology, Paul Scharre, vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, said in an April 18 opinion article for Time Magazine. While current U.S. restrictions on semiconductors exports to China are “narrowly targeted,” he said they will “de facto grow over time as chips advance and the threshold for export controls remains the same.”
Exports to China
The U.S. is still “considering” a new outbound investment screening regime, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week, stressing that any restrictions would be “narrowly scoped and targeted to clear objectives.”
The Bureau of Industry and Security on April 19 fined Seagate Technology $300 million for violating U.S. export controls against Huawei in what it said is the “largest standalone administrative penalty in BIS history.” The agency said the California-based company and its branch in Singapore sold more than 7 million export-controlled hard disk drives to Huawei in violation of the BIS foreign direct product rule.
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Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., reintroduced a bill last week that could lead to new export controls and sanctions against China. The China Technology Transfer Control Act, first introduced during the last Congress, calls on the president to impose restrictions on “any covered national interest technology or intellectual property” exported from the U.S. to China or by a U.S. person to China. It also would require the Commerce and State departments to submit a report to Congress within 90 days of the bill’s enactment “assessing” whether any covered technologies should be controlled under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations or Export Administration Regulations.
China has become a “world leader” in space and missile technologies despite “far-reaching” U.S. export controls, said Kevin Pollpeter, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis. Pollpeter, speaking during a U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing last week, said China’s space and missile programs are “not only closing the gap with the United States, but are also increasingly innovative.” He noted that the director of national intelligence recently warned that China could reach “world-class status” in most space technology areas by 2030.
The Bureau of Industry and Security should reform its Entity List process and its licensing procedures to more effectively prevent China from acquiring sensitive U.S. technologies, said Cordell Hull, former acting BIS undersecretary. Hull also suggested that BIS increase its penalties for export violations, and said he isn’t convinced creating a new multilateral export control regime is the best way to counter China.
The U.S., the Netherlands and Japan need to prepare for “expanded” Chinese retaliation as a result of their pact to impose new export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment (see 2303310031 and 2303090032), the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a commentary this week, adding that China has “long put national security goals above those of market efficiency.”
The Biden administration’s October semiconductor chip controls against China (see 2210070049 and 2211010042) are expected in the short term to “constrain” the country’s access to the most advanced chips “used in computationally intensive subfields” of artificial intelligence, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an April report. But the controls could spur Chinese AI researchers toward “subfields that are less computationally demanding” and lead them to develop “new competitive advantages” in those areas, the report said.
The U.S. should create an outbound investment screening regime that focuses on capturing “smart money” investments in critical technology industries in China, said Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security and former National Security Council official. Smart money investments would include those that are “accompanied by managerial expertise or other intangible benefits” that could advance China’s “indigenous technology capabilities,” she said.