Direct-to-device (D2D) market annual revenue will exceed $17 billion by 2032, according to an ABI Research analysis Thursday (see 2403260063). Apple's iOS 18 and Android 15 will add satellite messaging as a core feature in the coming months, it said. Also driving growth is SpaceX's D2D Starlink network, expected to launch commercial service in the second half of the year, ABI said. These advances will push the combined D2D markets to a compound annual growth rate of 39.8%. The satellite communication market is moving from narrowband emergency services to two-way messaging and data services and “this competition is reducing overall cost to these services while increasing accessibility to more users,” said Andrew Cavalier, ABI senior analyst. Updates to cellular technology will be coupled with increased satellite launch capacity, potentially unlocking a new era of abundance in lower-cost satellite services, ABI said. "We anticipate the seamless access of Starlink and Apple Satellite connectivity on devices will attract new and existing customers to leverage this technology when outside terrestrial coverage,” Cavalier predicted.
Liberty Media's planned reorganization of SiriusXM's ownership structure (see 2406180005) should be complete by Sept. 9, Liberty said Wednesday. Liberty scheduled a shareholder meeting for Aug. 23 when it will vote on the reorganization's transactions.
Given the vast amount of capacity SpaceX's Starlink is bringing online and its moves into new markets, along with expectations that Amazon's Kuiper will take a similar approach, satellite incumbents and new entrants face reduced opportunities, Analysys Mason's Christopher Baugh blogged Tuesday. Starlink is moving into markets including military, mobility and backhaul, he said. It offers more than 102 Tbps of capacity today and Kuiper is expected to deliver more than 117 when fully deployed, Baugh said. Contrast that with worldwide high-throughput satellite capacity of just 2.3 Tbps in 2019, he noted. Yet neither constellation will have enough bandwidth to cover the total addressable market, Baugh said. Within three to five years, Kuiper's launch of full commercial service will force connectivity prices further downward. Moreover, pricing pressure and churn across their customer base will challenge most operators. The "plan B" for those competitors could include consolidation, multi-orbit strategies or new verticals such as earth observation.
Astranis is "one step closer" to launching 100 small geostationary orbit satellites by 2030 after having raised $200 million in its latest round of funding, CEO John Gedmark posted Wednesday on X. He said 10 of its communications satellites will be orbited within the next 18 months. Astranis has raised $750 million, the company said.
The best way of measuring short-term interference between non-geostationary orbit satellite systems is by looking at the absolute change in link availability, rather than a relative change in unavailability, according to SpaceX. In a docket 21-456 filing Monday, it submitted a 42-page technical study of spectrum sharing among NGSO systems that it said could help inform the FCC in setting a framework for assessing compatibility of earlier and later processing round satellite systems. It said 99% link availability without the interferer should be treated as the minimum benchmark for an efficient, well-designed NGSO system that warrants levels of protection without unduly empowering inefficient earlier-round systems.
SpaceX won't own the direct-to-device marketplace, due to the complexities and dependencies around regulation, spectrum uses and mobile value chains, Analysys Mason's Chris Baugh blogged Monday. However, SpaceX is leading the race to provide D2D commercial service, he noted. Baugh said that while SpaceX has indicated it plans to launch D2D service in Q4, that rollout will likely start in northern regions as did the Starlink broadband rollout. He said SpaceX could provide continuous coverage in the northern continental U.S. with 300 satellites, though southern U.S. coverage would be spotty. He said 800 satellites would likely provide 18/7 Mbps peak channel speeds for all user equipment in a beam area.
Eutelsat/OneWeb is warning the FCC that applicants in the second Ka-/Ku-band processing round and their pending applications are about to become effectively first-round systems. In a docket 21-456 filing Friday recapping meetings with FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr and aides to the other commissioners, Eutelsat/OneWeb said most of those second-round applications are pending. It said that if they're not approved this month, those second-round applicants won't have to deploy satellites before the interference protections sunset for the first processing round's satellites. That effectively makes those second-rounders first-round systems, it said. Eutelsat/OneWeb said the FCC's 2023 order doesn't explain why existing operators received a three-year reduction of their interference protections, from 10 to seven years, in 2023's non-geostationary orbit satellite spectrum sharing order. Eutelsat/OneWeb said the "inequitable" seven-year sunset exacerbates post-sunset spectrum sharing uncertainty. It said that after the sunset date, the FCC should require that only later-round systems that have fully deployed can enjoy co-equal sharing with first-round systems. OneWeb has a pending reconsideration petition for the sunset provisions in the 2023 order (see 2307210037).
The FCC Space Bureau signed off on launch and operation of Sirius XM's planned replacement geostationary orbit satellite digital audio radio service satellites, SXM-9 and SXM-10 (see 2304070003), the agency said in a pair of approvals last week. The company said it was planning a 2024 launch of SXM-9 and 2025 for SXM-10.
Both EchoStar and SpaceX are pointing to the record on SpaceX's reconsideration petition concerning the out-of-band power flux density limit in March's supplemental coverage from space order as backing their opposing positions. There is ample opposition to the recon petition in the record, EchoStar said in a filing posted Tuesday in docket 23-65. SpaceX's lone supporter, T-Mobile, is partnering with it on SCS service and the carrier misunderstands how notice-and-comment rulemaking works, EchoStar said. The FCC wasn't obliged to put on notice in the SCS NPRM that it might adopt an aggregate out-of-band emissions limit, it added. SpaceX said the technical evidence in the record shows the need to reconsider the aggregate power limits. Band-specific limits "would respect fundamental physics," and there's no technical evidence supporting the arguments of backers of the aggregate limit, it said.
SpaceX is moving its headquarters from Hawthorne, California, to Starbase, Texas, near Brownsville, founder Elon Musk posted Tuesday on X. Various laws in California "attacking both families and companies" prompted the move, Musk said. He said "the final straw" was Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signing into law on Monday AB-1955, which prohibits requiring that K-12 teachers notify families about students' gender identity changes.