In-space Servicing Seen as Emerging Industry -- Sometime
A commercial in-space servicing industry -- long discussed -- is coming, but when remains a big question mark, Chris Blackerby, Astroscale chief operating officer, said Wednesday. Speaking at the annual Consortium for Execution of Rendezvous and Servicing Operations (CONFERS) conference in Arlington, Virginia, he said there's demand for such services in geostationary orbit but not to expect a market for in-space servicing in low earth orbit anytime soon. Blackerby said governments are the likely customers for in-space servicing in the near term, though eventually the bulk of the marketplace will be commercial operators contracting for services. Mark Quinn, head of insurance broker Willis Towers' space division, said some space insurers no longer provide coverage after a spate of huge claims during the past two years.
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Blackerby said the in-space servicing industry must walk a careful tightrope, as it needs government mandates that would incentivize or force satellite operators to contract for services and help jump-start the commercial marketplace. Yet too much regulation would hurt the space industry and in-space servicing's potential customers, he said.
Blackerby said in-space servicing needs to move beyond demonstrations and partially funding missions. Startups -- such as those comprising the in-space servicing industry -- cannot afford to keep partially funding their missions. Also hampering the industry is that governments are driving demand for now, and typically want development and manufacturing done in their countries. That's why Astroscale has operations in the U.S., U.K., Japan and France, even though it makes for inefficient manufacturing, he said.
Quinn said the space insurance marketplace is "hardening," with premiums and prices rising and insurers more constrained regarding the criteria they accept. He said space insurance went through similar hardening cycles in the 1980s and early 2000s. Underwriters want repeatability and predictable results, and getting them comfortable with new space applications such as in-space servicing requires that they can accept the risk they're being asked to underwrite, said Quinn.
Laura Cummings, Greenberg Traurig space lawyer, said questions about controlling and maintaining control of satellites are, for now, a gray area that will need legal and regulatory clarification. In-space servicing involves a switch in who has control, and export laws could come into play due to that switch, she said.
Before the national security sphere becomes a big buyer of in-space servicing, it needs assurance that servicing missions will not harm its space assets, said Dennis Wille, Astroscale U.S. senior director-business development for national security. He said building that trust and confidence starts with successful demonstrations of domain awareness capabilities such as on-orbit inspections.