Researchers Argue Against 'Piecemeal' Approach to Russia Sanctions
Western policymakers should sharpen their approach to economic sanctions to avoid the kinds of mistakes that have limited the impact of such measures against Russia, according to a recent paper released by the Brookings Institution.
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“Sanctions, while a critical tool of economic statecraft, are not a guaranteed solution to end wars or alter a country’s behavior,” the authors wrote. “To impose effective costs, we advocate for a comprehensive, technocratic approach with clear, measurable objectives, rather than a piecemeal strategy.”
Despite having “unprecedented scope and scale,” the Western sanctions that followed Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine have had little effect so far on Moscow’s economy or behavior due to several factors, including “a gradual rather than immediate imposition,” which gave Russia time to adjust and find other customers for its energy exports, the paper says. The U.S. and the EU took almost a year to cut their purchases of Russian oil and natural gas.
Other factors contributing to the ineffectiveness of Russia sanctions include a lack of clearly communicated goals; insufficient enforcement; and Moscow's experience with sanctions following its 2014 invasion of Crimea.
“Had comprehensive sanctions been imposed and effectively enforced immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is plausible that we would have seen a collapse of Russian markets, an economic and financial crisis, and a significantly reduced policy space to address these challenges,” the paper says. “While it is difficult to speculate with certainty, losing oil and gas revenues, along with access to critical components in 2022, would likely have made Russia's war effort far more difficult to sustain.”
The paper advises policymakers to keep in mind that sanctions tend to be more effective against smaller countries that are less connected to the world economy, such as North Korea and Venezuela. The "scale of Russia’s economy and its substantial share in global commodity markets made sanctions particularly challenging," the document says. "This scenario suggests that smaller countries might experience more pronounced deterrent effects from similar sanctions."
The 44-page paper, which Brookings released late last month, is the work of Oleg Itskhoki, economics professor at Harvard University, and Elina Ribakova, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
A Biden administration official said in May that the U.S. had imposed sanctions and export controls on more than 4,500 people and entities since Russia's 2022 invasion and was continuing to fine-tune those restrictions to counter evasion efforts (see 2405290060).