6G Deployments Won't Really Start in 2030, AT&T Warns

The first 6G standard is likely in the early part of 2029, Majmundar said. “That’s probably the earliest possible time, theoretically, that equipment could become available” for 6G. Carriers are still trying to “monetize” billions of dollars they've spent on 5G.

In 2030, it’s possible some carriers will launch “a little cluster of 6G to make a marketing claim,” Majmundar said: “I would not expect widespread availability of services in 2030.” The ITU has established 2030 as its target date for 6G commercialization.

One hurdle for 6G is that it may not be built on new spectrum bands, unlike all previous generations, said David Young, vice president-technology policy and government relations at the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions. “The challenge is going to be if we don’t have” spectrum as a driver, “will we have the same push?”

“There is an enormous need," Young said, "for more spectrum in North America,” particularly mid-band for 6G. The most promising band is lower 3 GHz, but government users “really can’t vacate” that spectrum and this “really requires us to find ways to share that spectrum more effectively.” There's been an “explosion” of fixed-wireless access (FWA) in the U.S., but 5G networks weren’t designed for that use. A network built with FWA in mind can “really do it much more effectively and efficiently.”

Speakers also noted AI's important role in 6G.

For AT&T, AI in its network is “an ongoing, business-as-usual activity,” Majmundar said. As such, it doesn’t make announcements about everything it’s doing on AI, he said. “It’s something we work on continuously -- we cannot wait for a new ‘G’ to use AI in our network.” While 6G will be “AI native,” AI is only an “add on” in 5G.

Monetization is also very important for 6G, Majmundar said. “Every year we invest billions of dollars in the network, and so do all of the operators.” Carriers must also monetize AI. AT&T, he said, sees AI as a way of making its network more efficient.

“AI," Young said, "will be used throughout the 6G architecture. It will be critical for the RAN, it will be critical for the core, and it will be critical for a wide variety of 6G use cases, whether it’s digital twins or extended reality."

Technology won’t be the biggest challenge for 6G, predicted Issam Toufik, chief technology officer of the European Telecommunications Standards Institute. Industry should learn from the experience of 5G and make sure 6G “is a commercial success and that we actually deliver on the promise,” he said.

Toufik warned about the dangers of fragmentation. For example, it took decades and different generations of wireless to reach 5G and a single global standard, he said. The economic value of having a single standard is “undeniable” for the industry and consumers. But geopolitical tensions are rising and there are risks that some countries will develop national standards for 6G, he said. “Fragmentation is a really lose-lose situation for the industry and for society."

Spectrum Constraints

The wireless industry will always need “new spectrum for new generations just because of the volume of data increasing,” said Monisha Ghosh, University of Notre Dame engineering professor and former FCC chief technologist. That may not be the same high-power exclusive-use spectrum the industry is used to, she said. “We have to investigate a lot more how 6G can operate in shared spectrum in a native way.”

The citizens broadband radio service is an example of a “very different spectrum regime, which is turning out to be quite successful,” Ghosh said. “There’s nothing stopping” carriers from using CBRS or unlicensed spectrum for 6G. “At the end of the day,” the most important thing is creating “a better connectivity experience." She added, "Industry sometimes loses sight of that point."

Millimeter-wave spectrum can meet indoor needs, Ghosh said, citing the example of a person waiting in an airport, where a dense deployment of high-band is possible. Ghosh said she’s received as much as 3 Gbps on her phone indoors. “Match the use case to the frequency,” she said: “We’re fighting physics all the time. Let’s be a little more thoughtful about how we use the frequency bands available to us.”

One question is whether carriers need more capacity in specific areas or should they use spectrum more efficiently, said Cristina Data, director-spectrum policy and analysis U.K.’s Office of Communications. “You may need to have a different way of making this spectrum available … and a different way of deploying." It’s unclear, she said, whether 6G will mean making new bands available. Carriers already have a lot of spectrum, she said.

Ofcom's message is that providers should start deploying all the spectrum they already have, Data said. Unless 6G “really brings something completely different … in reality there is the spectrum to meet the capacity requirements of today and of the short-term future,” and probably the medium-term future.

“We are not in a spectrum crunch where industry and others are screaming at us to give us more spectrum now, or we will die,” said Jonas Wessel, director-resource management department at the Swedish Post and Telecom Authority. “We’ve made a lot of spectrum available” for licensed use. “When we start talking about new spectrum, we should look at what’s in the bag already,” he said. “There is no more greenfield spectrum to be found in large amounts.”

Ghosh warned that the 7/8 GHz band, a top target of carriers for licensed use, is an unlikely panacea. There are already users across those frequencies, unlike CBRS, which is primarily shared with Navy radars, she said. “The truth is we’re not going to get multiple hundreds of megahertz of exclusively licensed spectrum,” she said: “Maybe there will be a little bit … but the rest may be available on a shared basis.”