USDA Says Ag Exports to China Could Be Much Higher Without Barriers
Chinese trade barriers to imported food cause substantial price differences between the amount Chinese buyers pay for those U.S. commodities -- including the standard tariffs -- and the national average cost of those goods, a study from USDA's Economic Research Service estimated.
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While there don't seem to be as many barriers to U.S. soybeans, the combination of tariffs and quotas on corn, wheat, pork and beef means those goods aren't imported as much as they would be if China allowed free trade for those items.
Economists estimated the gap between what the U.S. could sell if there were no barriers, and what they do sell by looking at the price differential between U.S. exports and the national average price of those goods.
For beef, the Chinese average was more than 80% more expensive; for corn, 60% more expensive; for pork, about 250% more expensive, because of African swine fever; and for wheat, 40% more expensive.
The four commodities combined are about 14% of China’s agricultural imports from the U.S. in 2020. So if tariffs and quotas were lifted -- the retaliatory tariffs weren't part of this equation -- U.S. ranchers would be able to sell 25% more right away; about 12% more corn, more than 100% more pork and 48% more wheat. The researchers said that over time, as more land is put into production, exports could grow by 46% in beef, 90% in corn, 400% in pork and 249% in wheat.