UK Could Join CPTPP Relatively Quickly, Former Trade Officials Say
The United Kingdom could enter the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership relatively quickly, former trade officials said. While items still need to be addressed in the negotiation process, which began in September (see 2109280018), they said the U.K. shouldn't face too many hurdles and most members support the U.K.’s accession.
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“If I'm going to go out on a limb, I would say a year from now their accession negotiations will be successfully concluded,” Wendy Cutler, the former U.S. TPP negotiator, said during a Nov. 3 webinar hosted by the Washington International Trade Association.
Shanker Singham, a former U.K. trade adviser, said the timeline depends on the U.K.’s “regulatory settings,” including its agricultural liberalization efforts and how closely its trade policies will align with CPTPP members. So far, he said, the U.K.’s policies look promising. “We have a lot more specificity on where the U.K. is on all of those issues and all of them are pointing toward the kinds of domestic regulatory settings that will speed an accession process,” said Singham, CEO of Competere, a trade consultancy. “It won't be plain sailing, but I think all the initial indications are that it would be faster rather than slower.”
Cutler, who leads the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the U.K.’s accession “makes a lot of sense” from “an efficiency point of view.” The country has been very busy negotiating bilateral trade deals since Brexit, and she said entering a large regional agreement will save it time and resources. “When you try to individually negotiate agreement after agreement … it takes a lot of work,” Cutler said. The CPTPP “allows them to kind of integrate more with the region as a whole,” she said, “versus just having bilateral economic ties.”
The U.K.’s accession also will depend on how “flexible” other member countries will be during the negotiation process, Cutler added. “This is going to be their first accession negotiation,” she said. “So they're really in uncharted waters, and they're going to have to figure out the procedures, how to work together.” But the other countries -- and especially Japan, the “most powerful current member” -- will likely be “very supportive” of the U.K. joining, said Tim Groser, former New Zealand trade minister.
One of the few hurdles may come from the U.S., Groser said. Some CPTPP member countries may wonder whether they should “give the Americans a little more time to actually come to their senses” and join the deal along with the U.K., rather than pursuing “segmented” accession procedures. “There is a very large question sitting out there that somebody is not in the room, and that's the United States,” Groser said. “That to me is a major question.” The Biden administration has so far not prioritized joining the deal because it’s focused on a range of domestic policy issues (see 2110060039).