Going to Movies May Cost More Even as Theaters' Role Shrinks: Nathanson

Consumers are benefiting from some tech trends the pandemic accelerated, and while the impact on movie theaters may reduce that sector's societal influence, it could still mean higher prices to go to the movies. Those were among predictions from MoffettNathanson's Michael Nathanson, speaking with us on C-SPAN Wednesday. The analyst noted many can save money by cutting the cord while watching new films at home rather than in theaters, a trend he expects to continue post-coronavirus crisis. The traditional pay-TV bundle "will serve sports, news, live event customers," he said on a Communicators episode to be televised later and posted online here. "If you're a fan of the NFL, the bundle brings all to you," Nathanson said: "It’s the only option for people who are passionate sports fans," though some sports are moving over the top. Older viewers haven't "pivoted away" from MVPDs "as quickly as you might think," while younger people moved to virtual MVPDs for good in a "faster erosion" of traditional subscription video, the analyst said. NCTA declined to comment. Amid new streaming products from companies that also own studios like AT&T, Comcast and Disney, "you’re seeing a real collapse" in some film revenue, Nathanson noted. "There’s going to be less movie theaters in the world." The likes of Netflix and AT&T's HBO Max bring "better and better quality films through streaming," so theaters may need to improve service and raise prices to pay for the better features, Nathanson said: If theaters raise prices and don’t innovate quickly enough, they could face consumer backlash, like MVPDs have over high prices. "Consumers seem to really, really value the optionality of watching a premiere in the living room." Nathanson foresees ‘"generations of people down the road" who "won't experience the joy" of seeing a film on a big screen with an audience. The National Association of Theatre Owners didn't comment. Meanwhile, platform usage keeps rising, even as lawmakers increasingly scrutinize the sector, indicating consumers aren't much worried about content moderation, privacy, election meddling and other hot-button policy issues, Nathanson noted. "I don’t think the average consumer is as concerned" about such topics "as people might think."