2024 Political Ad Spending to Top 2020, LaPlatney Predicts
Political ad spending in 2024 is likely to exceed 2020's record $8.5 billion, and it's conceivable -- if unlikely -- that spending in the Senate runoff in Georgia alone could reach $1 billion, Gray Television President Pat LaPlatney told the Media Institute. LaPlatney said most projections for the runoff are $200 million, but “it’s 2020; anything can happen.” Numbers that seemed “aggressive” before the 2020 race “have all been exceeded,” he said Monday.
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There's “no good reason” to believe political ad spending won’t continue to increase, LaPlatney said. He cited a likely Republican push to flip the House in 2022 and the large number of Democratic Senate seats on the ballot in 2024, along with the presidential campaign. It's “a good bet” that “someone named Trump” will be on the ballot in 2024, LaPlatney said, and that’s likely to boost enthusiasm in both parties. The GOP is “likely to be more splintered than ever,” and a host of names already are perceived as possible candidates for the Republican nomination in 2024, he said.
By 2024, ATSC 3.0 stations also could be a factor here, LaPlatney said. By then, many markets will have the new standard, and the technology allows more ad targeting, better tracking and commercials that could allow viewers to click and instantly donate to a campaign, he said. “There will be markets where ATSC 3.0 will matter in 2024.”
Attack ads in the Georgia runoff elections started the week after Election Day, LaPlatney said. Gray, which owns several stations there, expects large returns on the runoff (see 2011050059). LaPlatney said an early start is one of the reasons 2020 had record spending, while 2016 political ad revenue was lower than expected. The spending for the 2016 election cycle began in November 2015, while the first ads for the 2020 presidential race were bought in February 2019, he said.
COVID-19 trapping viewers in their homes and stimulating increased interest in TV news was also a likely factor in the increased outlays, LaPlatney said. Instead of holding rallies, campaigns focused on TV ads, he said. LaPlatney also emphasized “the Bloomberg effect” -- billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s six- to seven-week run for the White House. Bloomberg spent so much on advertising with Gray stations that he's in its top five of all advertising buyers for 2020, beating out some yearlong advertisers, LaPlatney said.