Softer Line on Mexico Tariffs Coming From White House, but Mexico Experts Are Gloomy
Five hours before Vice President Mike Pence was to meet June 5 with Mexico's Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. predicted that the 5 percent tariffs on all Mexican imports would be levied, and that they'd stay in place "at least a couple of days, or a couple of weeks."
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But there were some hints that the administration might back down as the day progressed. Peter Navarro, the hardest of hard-liners on protectionism in the White House, said on CNBC. "We believe that these tariffs may not have to go into effect, precisely because we have the Mexicans’ attention.”
President Donald Trump, speaking at a press conference in Ireland, said he thinks that Mexico will stop the flood of migrants. "I think they want to do something. I think they want to make a deal. And they sent their top people to try and -- we’ll see what happens today. We should know something," he said.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., had predicted that Trump would not go through with his threat during a speech on the floor of the Senate on June 4. Trump tweeted angrily in response that evening, "Can you imagine Cryin’ Chuck Schumer saying out loud, for all to hear, that I am bluffing with respect to putting Tariffs on Mexico. What a Creep. He would rather have our Country fail with drugs & Immigration than give Republicans a win. But he gave Mexico bad advice, no bluff!"
Schumer returned to the floor June 5 and said, "I continue to believe that he’ll ultimately back off. That’s been his MO." Schumer noted that his Republican colleagues oppose the tariffs, not just because of the economic damage they'd do in the United States, but because if you hurt the Mexican economy, that would lead to more migration, not less.
Former Mexican Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, who was speaking on a panel on the possibility of tariffs on Mexican imports at the Council of the Americas, said that Mexico will not agree to require Central Americans to apply for asylum in Mexico rather than the U.S. if they cross Mexican territory. That is one of Department of Homeland Security Acting Secretary Kevin McAleenan's demands, and Navarro said in the CNBC interview that it's the most important change Mexico could make.
Sarukhan said that Mexico has already agreed to let foreign migrants wait in Mexico for court dates in the U.S., and there are 18,000 of those individuals. Feeding and housing them is a burden to Mexican taxpayers, he noted. Mexico also has repatriated more than 75,000 migrants in 2019 so far. "The question is what is enough," he said. "Having said all of this, there is no way Mexico can duck and pretend it does not have a significant challenge on its border on Guatemala."
Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote, "Mexico could and should spend much more to deal with these human flows. But the United States -- whose own interdiction rate was 75 percent in 2016, which meant nearly 200,000 successful illegal entries -- is asking a nation with far fewer resources and much less capacity to shoulder a burden that the U.S. admits it can’t handle."
Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Earl Anthony Wayne said during the Council of the Americas panel that the hundreds of thousands of Central Americans heading north are "basically overwhelming the capacities of Mexico and the United States. It’s also something they can’t turn on and off in a week, as some of these tweets have suggested."
Other politicians were trying to turn the temperature down on the trade conflict when taking to Twitter. Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, wrote, "Both parties are negotiating in good faith. Let's find common ground. America & Mexico can have BOTH strong security & strong trade. Texas pays steep price for porous border (crime, drugs, human trafficking) & would pay steep price in trade dispute."