Trump Says Tariffs Are Likely to Go on Mexico; Congress Mulling Votes to Block Them

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet June 5 to talk about what Mexico is doing to reduce migration of Central Americans to the U.S., and Ebrard told reporters early June 4 that there's an 80 percent chance of those conversations being successful in convincing the U.S. not to impose tariffs. "We are going to have common ground," he said at a press conference at the Mexican Embassy.

But a few hours later, Trump said at a press conference in England that "it's more likely the tariffs go on" as scheduled on June 10, even though he acknowledged that the administration may "try to do something" when it meets with Ebrard. He dismissed the idea that Republicans would block his action with a disapproval resolution. (Such a resolution would have to pass both chambers with veto-proof majorities to stop the escalating tariffs.) "Oh, I don’t think they will do that," he said, "I think if they did, it’s foolish."

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said Republicans hearing from White House staffers on the proposal at a caucus lunch expressed what he called deep resistance to the plan to impose tariffs on Mexico.

"What we're seeing right now is a giant game of chicken. It's like two trucks headed straight for each other on a country road. If the outcome of this is Mexico blinks, and they turn, and they actually become active, productive partners in helping stop illegal immigration, that would be a good outcome," he said. "But if the outcome of this game of chicken is massive new tariffs that destroy jobs in Texas and across the country, that would be a terrible outcome."

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said during his press conference after the lunch that most Republicans are hopeful that Mexico will offer to help stem the flow, and tariffs will be avoided.

Senate Majority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., also said that Republicans are hopeful the tariffs won't come to pass and they won't have to take a disapproval vote. When asked by International Trade Today why Republicans keep saying they're hopeful an agreement will be reached with Mexico before the tariff deadline, given Trump's comments, Thune responded: "I think a number of our members are talking to the administration, including the president himself, in hopes that we can find a way out of this."

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who strongly opposes linking illegal immigration and tariffs, said earlier that morning that he hopes Ebrard's conversations will be successful. When asked about the possibility of Congress blocking the tariffs, he declined to say how he would vote on a disapproval resolution.

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said during an interview on CNBC that Ohio's economy is interdependent with Canada and Mexico. "Maybe [Mexican officials] will announce on Wednesday they’re going to do more and maybe we can avoid this," he said, adding that that's important for two reasons -- one, it provides space to pass the new NAFTA, and two, it would allow the U.S. trade representative to keep the focus on China. Portman, a former USTR, said, "I’ve talked before about having too many balls in the air? This, again, distracts us from where we would like the focus to be."

Grassley said he agreed with the arguments former diplomats made to International Trade Today about the damage tariffs would cause to future negotiations [see Ref:1905310005]. "It hurts our credibility, and I think that's one of the big things for the president to move USMCA along is to enhance our credibility with future negotiations that are going on now with Japan, and possibly in the future with Europe."

Portman said if the tariffs are imposed, he thinks it's likely Congress would vote to try to stop the action, but he noted that the last time Congress attempted to stop executive emergency action on Mexico -- reprogramming money for a border wall -- Trump vetoed the resolution, and there were not enough votes to override. He said he can't predict if that would happen again. Thune said he didn't want to predict how a resolution vote would go, but in comparing a vote this time to that vote, he said this would "be a heavier lift" for the White House. "This has a different feel to it than the last time," he said.

Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., a leading voice against the president's tariff-heavy policy, told reporters he was not satisfied by the message from the White House during the Republican lunch. But Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Mexico's southern border is only 150 miles, and they could stop migration there. He said the administration has to do something to stem the "ridiculous" numbers of asylum-seekers arriving each month.

Cruz said, "There's no doubt we have an emergency at the border. I'm hearing from local officials in Texas all along the border that their resources are being swamped, they're overwhelmed. The answer, however, is not imposing tariffs against Mexico." He said a 25 percent tariff would impose nearly $30 billion in new taxes on Texas companies that import from Mexico in a year. "I will yield to nobody in passion and seriousness and commitment in securing the border. But there's no reason for Texas farmers, ranchers, manufacturers and small businesses to pay the price of massive new taxes."

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said he told the White House representatives that they should take seriously the possibility that the Senate would vote with a veto-proof majority to block the tariffs. However, he also said if Mexico changed its asylum policy so that Central Americans would not be able to claim asylum in the U.S. if they crossed Mexican territory, they'd have to claim asylum in Mexico, then the tariff threat would have been effective. He said when he asked the Mexican ambassador three weeks ago about this possibility, she said Mexico would not agree to that "before the words were even out of my mouth."

Over in the House of Representatives, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said, in response to a question from International Trade Today, said he didn't want to talk about the timing of a vote, but he said he'd be discussing with Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., about how to address the tariffs, and a disapproval resolution is one avenue.

Hoyer said Democrats think "this is not a wise policy," and Republicans don't like the idea either. "We haven't been too successful in getting to numbers that are even close to a veto-proof piece of legislation, but we'll see, because I'm heartened by the fact that at least some Republicans are speaking out, perhaps cautiously, but nevertheless speaking."

Mike Dankler, chief of staff for Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., said he couldn't predict whether there would be enough Republican votes in the House to override a veto. But then he implied that there would not be, as he added that Mexican diplomacy is the best shot to avoid the tariffs, or at least postpone them. He said the administration likes postponing tariffs to "keep the sword over your head."