Telecom Interests Eye Senate, House Commerce Leadership Turnover

Many lobbyists expect split control of Congress, with Democrats winning the House and Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. Analysts see a high probability for a split. The 538 blog Friday gave Democrats an almost 85 percent chance of flipping the House. The Cook Political Report gives Democrats a 182-142 edge in safe House seats, with 100 contests with GOP incumbents and 13 with Democratic ones competitive or potentially competitive. Incumbents in toss-up races include Senate Commerce ranking member Bill Nelson, D-Fla., and committee members Ted Cruz, R-Texas; Dean Heller, R-Nev.; and Jon Tester, D-Mont.

Thune, leaving as Senate Commerce chairman to potentially succeed outgoing Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, is “strongly considering” chairmanships of two Senate Commerce subcommittees -- Communications and Surface Transportation, a Senate GOP aide told us. Thune would succeed Communications Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., who's making a bid to head Senate Commerce (see 1810260043). Wicker is considered the odds-on favorite for that role.

Thune is interested in pursuing the Senate Communications gavel because he “wants to maintain an active role on telecom issues since he's been invested in them” in recent cycles as Senate Commerce chairman, a communications lobbyist said. Thune has been a central figure in telecom policymaking, including the Repack Airwaves Yielding Better Access for Users of Modern Services (Ray Baum's) Act FCC reauthorization and spectrum statute included in the FY 2018 federal spending law (see 1803230038).

Thune would likely “clear the field” of any other candidates for the subcommittee gavel because of his seniority, but otherwise there's no clear front-runner, a telecom lobbyist said. Thune hasn't decided whether he would prefer to chair Communications or Surface Transportation, which would “have a key role in processing the next surface transportation bill,” expected in 2020, a Senate GOP aide said.

Next in GOP seniority on Senate Commerce are Roy Blunt of Missouri, Cruz and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. Cruz and Fischer are up for re-election. Cruz leads Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke by 3-10 points. Analysts rate Fischer a lock to win against Democratic Lincoln, Nebraska, Councilwoman Jane Raybould.

House Commerce

The House Commerce Committee will experience a significant shakeup to GOP leadership regardless of which party controls the chamber.

Two current subcommittee chairmen will retire -- House Communications' Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and Commerce Oversight Subcommittee's Gregg Harper, R-Miss. Three other committee Republicans also will leave -- Vice Chairman Joe Barton of Texas and House Communications' Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania and North Dakota's Kevin Cramer. Blackburn and Cramer are running for Senate seats, with both favored to win. Commerce Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore., is expected to retain the GOP leader role. Analysts believe Walden will easily win re-election.

Digital Commerce Subcommittee Chairman Bob Latta, R-Ohio, is considered the front-runner to succeed Blackburn as top House Communications GOP member, though he doesn’t have a lock there. Latta has been active this Congress on telecom issues, recently co-founding the Congressional Wi-Fi Caucus (see 1810040056). He suggested earlier an NTIA reauthorization bill could be a vehicle for broadband infrastructure legislation (see 1804230061). Latta’s “focus right now is on Tuesday’s election and working to ensure Republicans keep the House,” a spokesman said.

House Communications Vice Chairman Leonard Lance, R-N.J., Kentucky’s Brett Guthrie and Illinois’ John Shimkus are viewed as possible contenders for the party's top subcommittee spot. Lance has been active on broadband infrastructure and leads the 911 Fee Integrity Act (HR-6424) to bar states from 911 fee diversion and give the FCC power to decide on “acceptable” uses (see 1808170023). Guthrie has remained active on spectrum reallocation issues as co-chair of the Congressional Spectrum Caucus, including urging FCC advancement of an NPRM on unlicensed use of the 6 GHz band or C-band uplink (see 1809120050). Shimkus also has been active on broadband infrastructure (see 1801190048).

Guthrie “has enjoyed his work” on House Communications, “especially helping Kentuckians gain better access to cellular and internet access,” a spokeswoman said. “His immediate and primary focus is on working with [Walden] to hold the House majority.”

Shimkus’ current focus “is on helping to ensure Republicans retain the majority,” but “it’s fair to expect he will continue to have a leadership role on" Commerce, a spokesman said. He will continue to be actively engaged on all the subcommittees” he serves on, including Communications.

Lance

Lance would pose the strongest challenge because of his current leadership role on House Communications, lobbyists said. Latta has seniority over Lance on House Commerce. Lance faces a tough re-election bid, with analysts rating his race a toss-up against Democratic challenger Tom Malinowski. Lance trailed Malinowski in two October polls, with the Democrat leading him 47-39 percent in a New York Times-Siena College survey. A Lance spokesman didn’t comment.

Lance would “enjoy the advantage” in a House Communications chairmanship bid by having a uniquely good relationship with House Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone, D-N.J., who's expected to become committee chairman if the Democrats win control, said Rutgers University political science professor Ross Baker. Lance “would certainly have a better avenue to approach Pallone” on telecom policy issues than any other Republican. Lance and other incumbent GOP members of the New Jersey congressional delegation face headwinds because Democrats believe “a vote for any Republican is a vote for President Donald Trump,” who has a low approval rating in the state, Baker said.

Prospects for Lance’s re-election depend on whether Republican turnout in his congressional district matches Democrats, who are believed to be highly motivated to vote, said College of New Jersey political science professor Daniel Bowen. Committee leadership roles and seniority “matter” in determining an incumbent’s re-election prospects, mainly "at the margin” by scaring off “well-qualified challengers.” In tight races like the one Lance faces “where the tension is high and you’ve attracted a well-qualified challenger, I’m not sure how much those attributes are going to help Lance,” Bowen said.

Guthrie, Latta and Shimkus are considered locks for re-election. Seven other House Commerce Republicans are viewed as potentially vulnerable, including House Republican Conference Chairman Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, former House Commerce Chairman Fred Upton of Michigan and House Communications member Mimi Walters of California.

House Communications ranking member Mike Doyle, D-Pa., like Pallone, is expected to retain his leadership role regardless of whether his party wins the majority. No House Commerce Democrats are considered vulnerable. One committee Democrat is retiring: Rep. Gene Green of Texas.

Nelson Shakeup?

Telecom stakeholders are closely following Nelson’s race against retiring Florida Gov. Rick Scott because of the potential for turnover in Senate Commerce Democratic leadership. Nelson led Scott in seven of eight polls conducted in the past two weeks by 1-4 points.

Nelson’s race against Scott remains a toss-up despite recent polls, the outcome very much depending on “who shows up” to vote, said Florida State University political science professor Carol Weissert. It’s “been a race about personalities” and has focused on state-centric issues to a far greater extent than some other contests because Scott is the incumbent governor. Scott's and Nelson's October criticisms over carrier efforts to restore service after Hurricane Michael (see 1810160056) may affect voters in the Panhandle and Tallahassee because they were directly affected, but “to the rest of the state, that’s not important,” Weissert said. “Tallahassee is a long way away from Miami.”

There's no clear front-runner to succeed Nelson as lead Senate Commerce Democrat if he loses, lobbyists said. Senate Communications ranking member Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, is expected to retain that role. The most likely contenders for the top Senate Commerce Democratic role based on seniority would be Maria Cantwell of Washington, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, lobbyists said. There are questions whether Cantwell or Klobuchar would be willing to take the top Democratic slot at Senate Commerce since each holds the party’s top roles on other committees.

Three other Senate Commerce Democrats besides Nelson and Tester are up for re-election: Cantwell, Klobuchar and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Cantwell and Klobuchar are believed certain to win re-election. Analysts say Baldwin’s race against Republican State Sen. Leah Vukmir is potentially competitive, but Baldwin has consistently led recent polls by 10-14 points. Tester has led Republican Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale in recent polls by 2-9 points.